Sayonara Keppel Club! - What's Next For The Club's Neighboring Residents?
The departure of Keppel Club and the planned transformation of its sprawling 48-hectare golf-course into a spectacular waterfront residential precinct - to include 6,000 HDB flats - is by now, old news.
However, with the club officially handing the land back to the government on 30 June 2022 and the first sign of machinery rolling in, worries and frustrations for its neighbouring residents are starting to get real.
What We Know About The Government's Plans So Far
9000 residential units planned; mix of public and private housing
6000 of these units have been confirmed as HDB BTO flats, which are expected to be launched within the next 3 years (before end-2025)
Close to 10-hectares (equivalent to 20% of the site's area) will be set aside as parks and open land
There will be 4 green corridors running through the estate, plus a "planting strip with an additional patch of greenery" along the site's eastern boundary (the boundary that runs along the side of Reflections @ Keppel Bay)
Plans to integrate future developments on the site with existing nature parks and park connectors seem clearer than the positioning of land parcels at this time [Graphic Source: Nparks/MND]
The site to be developed isn't a small one - and it isn't going to happen "all at one go"...which means that neighbouring residents may have to put up with plenty of construction activity and the noise and dust that comes with it for well over a decade.
In addition to the inconvenience, the addition of housing supply to the tune of 9000 dwelling units - including HDB flats - has sent shivers down the spines of condominium owners in the area, many of whom in the past paid in excess of $2000psf for their properties expecting the area to retain its character and exclusivity.
But is it Really That Bad?
A decade of construction noise and dust blowing through your living room? No one appreciates that.
A few of the private residential developments sit at the edge of the site and will enjoy a front-seat view of the changes as they take place over the next decade. [Graphic: UppMarketSG]
Residents of Skyline Residences, Harbour View Towers and a large majority of units within Reflections @ Keppel Bay, will also have to trade the view of the eye-pleasing golf course greens first for a huge construction site, before it eventually transforms in to an enclave of towering concrete blocks.
Quite obviously, some existing residents will have to tolerate the full extent of development work on the site, bidding sayonara to the existing view of the golf course.
However, there are (fortunately) some positives to look forward to that could in time convert some residents' pessimism to optimism.
Firstly, what was once a private golf course will now be land accessible to the public. The area is actually home to plenty of flora and fauna and the government's current plans for green corridors and open spaces does sound interesting. It could actually make the area even more pleasant to explore and live around.
Four main green corridors run across the land plot, serving as spaces for recreational use and ecological connectors between nearby parks [Graphic Source: URA/Facebook]
Secondly, its reasonable to expect that the presence of a HDB estate should bring with it more amenities - something which Reflections' residents will be happy with since at present their nearest hope is a sweaty 1.2km walk to HarbourFront and VivoCity.
Property Values Could Rise
Urban transformation in Singapore has generally helped elevate property values, bringing renewed interest to different districts. The Keppel Club site, being the first large scale portion of the Greater Southern Waterfront (GSW) to be developed will certainly be popular among home buyers and investors given its 'waterfront' and sea-facing attributes; regarded as a rarity in Singapore.
Going by 2022's new launch prices, it won't be surprising if a highly sought after plot on the Keppel Club site will see launch prices closer to that of District 9 projects.
Developers could end up competing to secure these land plots, driving future launch prices in the area past the $2800psf mark (the most recent launch in the area was Reef @ King's Dock in year 2021, which sold at an average of $2400psf).
This is hugely supportive for the price of existing condominiums in the area, many of which are still transacting below $2000psf and in fact suggests a possible pricing disparity waiting to be addressed.
Harbour View Towers - although already into the 28th year of its 99-year land lease could be a good candidate for a future collective sale. Units are transacting at around $1400psf (August 2022).
Reflections at Keppel Bay - A Case of Wait It Out? Or Get Out Now?
Perhaps some property owners - in particular, units of Reflections @ Keppel Bay that overlook the golf course - may not hold the same optimism. The development runs along the eastern boundary of the golf course and its residents are in pole position to enjoy the noise and dust from all that construction jazz.
There appears to be a fast growing number of sale listings on PropertyGuru, revealing that many owners would rather cash out, sell and get out of the area.
Screengrab from PropertyGuru on 28 August 2022 - 402 other properties listed for sale in Reflections at Keppel Bay - that's around 30% of the development's 1129 units!
The problem is, for the very same reasons, few buyers are going to want to buy these units at this point of time. Sellers may have no choice but to stay put or be forced to market their units extremely cheap in the hope of tempting someone to buy it over - and that's where the problem lies.
Some units have been seen listed as low as $1480psf, while the average transaction price has struggled to climb above $1750psf - matching its significantly older neighbouring condo Caribbean @ Keppel Bay.
This is a concern for future value - if too many sellers peddle their units cheap, it may make it difficult for owners to ask higher prices in future.
Perhaps the hope therefore lies in the "sea facing" or "waterfront" units. Reflections does have some pretty unique, luxurious apartments dubbed as "villa units" fronting the marina. One of these has transacted at $2338psf in August, which although still somewhat far off the $3000psf these units were launched at a decade ago, still represents a reasonably supportive price level for the development's average valuation.
Sea facing units in Block 21 have a one-of-a-kind frontage, facing the sea. They will not be affected by construction disturbance and will likely have their view and frontage preserved.
If you own a unit at Reflections and you're not sure what to do - sell or stay put, drop us a message - we'll share some ideas with you!
3000 New Private Residential Units Coming Up - Is Future Supply a Worry?
Supply, or the potential for over-supply has also been cited as a future concern by some property owners. Adding "3000 private residential units" almost doubles the area's supply of condominium units.
At present there are 3557 non-landed private residential units built into 8 condominium projects in and around the Keppel Bay area (including 86 units due to be launched soon) [Graphic: UppMarketSG]
A sound perspective to take is the fact that 6557 (3000+3557) units is by no means a large number - especially if the area gains popularity as the GSW's development progresses and buyers desire to live there.
Will The Presence of a HDB Estate Affect Property Values?
It's unlikely that the insertion of a new HDB estate in to the Keppel Bay landscape will have any impact on existing or future property values. The HDB market and private property markets function separately and there is no evidence from other examples of condominiums having their prices suffer upon the planting of a HDB estate next door.
Furthermore, we've also seen how HDB is capable of building flats that look like pseudo condo units (e.g. Skyville@Dawson). Therefore, much like how Pinnacle@Duxton has been successfully integrated in to Cantonment's landscape...who knows? The "Keppel Bay HDB Estate" could even rise to look like year 2030's "World's Most Instagram-able Spot".
In Summary
Not every one appreciates change and although it may take some time for Keppel Bay and its surrounding residents to get used to the idea of welcoming in 9000 households, we believe there are many positives to look forward to:
A boost to property value
More amenities and green spaces
URA's plans for the Greater Southern Waterfront finally kicking off
Property Sellers: What to expect
If you're thinking of selling your Keppel Bay property, you may need to be patient. While we believe property values will eventually rise, buyers today may find it difficult to justify paying more just yet. More needs to happen to generate hype in the area, to "show proof" of its value - and yes, we're talking about the launch of the HDB BTO project and possibly more details about the private residential land parcels and the price at which developers pay for them.
Buyers: When to buy?
While property prices all across the island seem to be at all-time highs, one only needs to search PropertyGuru to realize that there are many units in the area being marketed below valuation - take your pick! Barring a general decline in property prices all over the island, we can't see any reason why Keppel Bay properties will sink in value in future.
So many incorrect statements here it's scary. Firstly there is a bus service from Reflections to HarbourFront. Secondly there is a very good Fairprice in the basement. Thirdly the distruction of the trees and plants happening on the Keppel Golf Club site is an ecological disgrace that I am very surprised no one has commented on and there is I'm sure a lot more to come. 'Re-greening' afterwards doesn't replace this and it's completely unnecessary.
What is true is that the rental prices at Reflections has dropped like a stone in the last year, this is probably a combination of many factors including - A significant change in demographics and background of the occuoants at Reflections, the building works and…